基于大数据的地震损失价值评估模型设计          下载免费PDF全文

张加庆 《地震工程学报》2018,40(2):356-362

破坏性地震往往导致严重的经济损失及人员伤亡,对地震损失价值评价有助于震前找出抗震弱点,提高抗震能力,实现减轻地震灾害损失的目的。传统空间模型在地震数据处理过程中,无法处理大数据对空间尺度选择的干扰,存在地震损失评估结果偏差大以及波动性高的弊端。因此,在云计算平台下,提出基于大数据的地震损失价值评估模型设计,对模型HAZ-China大数据的服务层次、地震应用服务层以及HAZ-China大数据体系结构进行设计,为用户提供震前、震时以及震后的地震损失价值评估服务。模型采用HBase分布式数据库实现大数据的存储和分析,设计房屋震害数据库以及云计算模型,通过考虑大数据因素的地震灾害损失综合评估过程,实现地震损失价值的准确评估。实验结果说明,所设计模型可实现地震损失价值的准确评估,具有较高的评估精度和稳定性。  相似文献   

小型土石坝加密抗液化离心机振动台试验研究     

刘庭伟  李俊超  朱斌  汪玉冰  高玉峰  陈云敏 《岩土力学》2020,41(11):3695-3704

地震作用下土石坝液化易导致坝坡失稳滑移等严重后果，加密法是常用的抗液化手段之一。针对坝趾压重与坝壳翻压两种坝身加密加固方法，开展了离心机振动台试验，分析了不同加密型抗液化处理的小型土石坝坝坡地震响应规律。试验结果表明，由于高水头作用下坝坡底部土体软化，未处理坝坡加速度放大系数沿高程先减小后增大，而加密坝坡加速度放大系数沿高程逐渐增大，且坝坡表面处加速度存在表面放大现象。坝趾压重和坝壳翻压提高了坝身有效应力，降低地震产生的超静孔压比，有效防止土体液化。未处理坝坡在峰值加速度为0.24g地震作用下即发生坝趾液化现象，而加密坝坡在峰值加速度为0.24g和0.45g下均未发生液化。未处理坝坡整体侧向位移大，加密处理后，在峰值加速度为0.24g下坝坡整体表现为竖向位移。坝趾压重区坝趾水平位移明显减小，坝壳翻压区坡顶沉降减小了50%。试验结果验证了坝趾压重和坝壳翻压的抗液化效果，为小型土石坝抗震加固设计提供了参考。  相似文献   

Pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation of masonry buildings     

Jure Snoj  Matjaž Dolšek 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(6):567-588

A pushover-based seismic risk assessment and loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables estimation of loss by various performance measures such as the probability of exceeding a designated economic loss, the expected annual loss, and the expected loss given a seismic intensity. The methodology enables the estimation of the economic loss directly from the results of structural analysis, which combines pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis of an equivalent SDOF model. The use of the methodology is demonstrated by means of two variants of a three-storey masonry building both of which have the same geometry, but they are built, respectively, from hollow clay masonry (model H) and solid brick masonry (model S). The probability of collapse given the selected design earthquake corresponding to a return period of 475 years was found to be negligible for model H, which indicates the proper behaviour of such a structure when designed according to the current building codes. However, the corresponding probability of collapse of model S was very high (46%). The expected total loss given the design earthquake was estimated to amount to 28 000 € and 290 000 €, respectively, for models H and S. The expected annual loss per 100 m² of gross floor area was estimated to amount to 75 € and 191 €, respectively, for models H and S. For the presented examples, it was also observed that nonstructural elements contributed more than 50% of the total loss.  相似文献   

基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

冯莉  樊燕燕  王力  李子奇 《地震工程学报》2020,42(3):639-645

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。  相似文献   

中国旅游城市生态安全系统评估与类型划分研究 ——基于节点权重约束网络DEA模型   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

秦晓楠  程钰 《地理科学》2019,39(1):156-163

采用 DPSIR概念模型作为旅游生态安全系统的基本形态,引入网络 DEA模型测度系统运行效率,从“投入-产出”的研究视角探究旅游生态安全系统内部作用机理。采用结构方程模型对网络 DEA模型的结构及权重加以限制,构建具有节点权重约束的网络 DEA评价模型,对主要旅游城市生态安全系统实例进行实证研究。研究结果认为：将生态安全系统分为自然运行阶段、管理反馈阶段2阶段进行效率评价,加权综合得出各旅游城市生态安全系统的综合评价值,以此为依据将样本城市划分为按系统效率的评价结果将其分划为绿色发展型、稳步发展型、高效发展型、双向提升型和管理能力缺失型,针对各类型旅游城生态安全系统特点提出改善其生态安全系统状况的建议。  相似文献   

基于直觉模糊层次分析法的地震压埋率模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

肖东升  钟祖峰  罗尚  练洪  罗俊 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):127-135

强烈地震会导致建筑物倒塌进而造成室内人员压埋，因此，把特定区域和建筑群的压埋率作为震后救援的决策指标尤为重要。但地震建筑物倒塌受多个影响因素共同作用，造成了压埋率模型的后验倒塌率评估的不确定性问题。针对这个问题采用直觉模糊层次分析法，选取了震级、震源深度、震中距、抗震设防烈度、地基和基础、建筑物结构类型和结构现状等七大影响因素进行加权分析。运用LINGO软件建模解算出了各影响因素权重，通过极大似然法估算了各影响因素对建筑物倒塌率的影响值，进而评估出了建筑物预估倒塌率，并结合先验在室率模型及其区划，建立了基于直觉模糊层次分析法的地震压埋率模型。最后以汶川灾区学校为例，进行了压埋率评估，并对其进行了误差分析。研究表明:抗震设防烈度、建筑物结构类型和结构现状是影响建筑物倒塌的主要因素；在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.15，能为震后快速应急救援提供决策辅助。  相似文献   

基于空间分析技术的海岛地震灾害风险分析研究          下载免费PDF全文

郑秋红  贾婧  高惠瑛  杨树桐  李蓓 《世界地震工程》2019,35(3):168-176

我国约有1.1万个海岛，多处于地震活跃带，地震灾害特征明显，目前地震领域研究主要针对城市展开，海岛地震灾害风险的研究较少。此背景下，该研究收集了海岛地震相关的地质和地震数据，形成海岛地震灾害空间数据库；从地震危险性、承灾体易损性和防震减灾能力3个方面构建海岛地震灾害风险评价指标体系；利用ArcGIS空间分析技术，采用熵权法与AHP法相结合建立海岛地震灾害风险综合评价模型，以长岛县、洞头区和东山县为例进行分析，并将海岛地震灾害风险等级划分为4个等级。结果显示:东山县为地震灾害高风险区，洞头区和长岛县为地震灾害较低风险区。该研究对海岛工程抗震规划与设计有重要意义。  相似文献   

中国地质灾害防治成效与问题对策     

刘传正  陈春利 《工程地质学报》2020,28(2):375-383

文章回顾了中国地质灾害调查评价、监测预警、综合防治、应急响应、信息化建设、技术装备、技术标准、学术研究、行业进步和法治化建设等工作业绩。中国地质灾害造成的遇难人数1995~2000年年均死亡失踪1205人,2001~2005年均死亡失踪884人,2006~2010年均死亡失踪776人(2010年数据不含甘肃舟曲县城山洪泥石流造成的1765人死亡失踪),2011~2017年均死亡失踪395人,2018年死亡失踪112人。2001~2010年发生地质灾害总数量194702处,平均1.947万处/年;直接经济损失385.3亿元,平均38.5亿元/年,平均19.8万元/处。2011~2018年发生地质灾害总数量为84718处,平均1.06万处/年;直接经济损失355.7亿元,平均44.5亿元/年,平均41.9万元/处。2001年以来城乡社区直接经济损失占国家GDP的比例不断下降,平均年降率为0.016‰。地质灾害成功预报数量占地质灾害总数的比例从2003的5%上升到2018年的20%左右。经过采取各种减灾措施,城乡社区需要应急避险人数逐渐减少。总结了存在的问题和面临的形势,如防灾文化建设薄弱、法制不健全和直接经济损失统计局限于城乡社区而未覆盖工程建设行业的地质灾害等。提出了地质灾害防治要建立政府、企业、个人、社会(包括保险业)和科技界五位一体的防灾减灾“伙伴”关系等对策。  相似文献   

大菱鲆体重和主要体型比率性状的遗传动态分析     

王新安  马爱军 《海洋学报(英文版)》2020,39(2):22-27

The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of body width(BW)to body length(BL)ratio(BW/BL)and of body weight traits(BWT)in turbot,and to elucidate the genetic mechanism of the two traits during ontogeny by dynamic genetic analysis.From 3 to 27 months,BW,BL and BWT of each communally stocked fish were measured every 3 months.The BW/BL ratio was measured at different sampling ages.A twotrait animal model was used for genetic evaluation of traits.The results showed that the heritability values of BW/BL ratio ranged from 0.2168 to 0.3148,corresponding to moderate heritability.The BWT heritability values ranged from 0.2702 to 0.3479 corresponding to moderate heritability.The heritability of BW/BL ratio was lower than that of BWT,except at 3 months of age.Genetic correlation between BW/BL ratio and BWT decreased throughout the measurement period.Genetic correlations were higher than the phenotypic correlations.The current results for estimating genetic parameters demonstrate that the BW/BL ratio could be used as a phenotypic marker of fast-growing turbot,and the BW/BL ratio and BWT could be improved simultaneously through selective breeding.  相似文献   

Comparison of runoff characteristics of two adjacent basins in a tropical rainforest using a modified hydrologic cycle model with outflow          下载免费PDF全文

Taeko Wakahara  Katsushige Shiraki  Masakazu Suzuki 《水文研究》2014,28(3):509-520

We propose a new runoff model including an outflow process that was applied to two adjacent basins (CL, TL) located in Lambir Hills National Park in north‐central Sarawak, Malaysia. Rainfall, runoff, topography, and soil layer thickness were observed. About 19% of annual runoff was observed in the CL basin (21.97 ha), whereas about 46% was observed in the TL basin (23.25 ha). It was inferred that the CL basin has an outflow because of low base flow, small runoff peak, and excessive water loss. By incorporating the outflow process into the HYdrological CYcle MODEL, good agreement between the data generated by the model and that observed was shown, with the exception of the data from the rainless period. Then, the fitting parameters for each basin were exchanged, except for the outflow parameter, and the characteristics of each basin were compared by calculating virtual runoff. As a result, the low base flow of the CL basin was estimated by the movement of the rainwater that escaped from the basin as deep percolation or lateral flow (11% of rainfall). The potential of the CL basin for mitigating flood and drought appeared to be higher than that of the TL basin. This is consistent with the topographic characteristics of the CL basin, which has a gentler slope than the TL basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献